Tipping Points Part 3: Climate
For every action, there's an equal and opposite reaction.
Welcome to the 20th edition of Honey Drops, where the usual format is out the window: this is Tipping Points Part 3. You can find Part 1 here (Pass The Suncreen) and Part 2 here (Behavioural Change).
Feel free to forward this on to anyone you think would benefit from a drop on their toast, a stir in their tea or a window into the global systems transforming in real time.
Lets Take A Breath:
As commercial Sustainability continues to be incorporated into the risk matrix of companies across Australia, in line with similar rollouts in many of our closest trading partners (e.g. the UK, EU, Japan, the US, Korea, Singapore, China), the forest is sometimes missed for the trees.
If you’re involved in this work, you are expected to illustrate the commercial risks and opportunities of being proactive compared to waiting to act after the fact. The mandatory climate reporting requirements, legislated as the Australian Sustainability Reporting Standards or ASRS (which I have written about here) can therefore lead teams to quickly zoom into the climate data of their Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions.
While this is important, no doubt, the drilling into data can often ignore the ‘why’ behind what has been called the largest change to corporate reporting since the GST by the Chair of ASIC, Joe Longo.
What’s a Climate Tipping Point?
Firstly, and importantly, there are both negative tipping points and positive tipping points, an interconnected web which result in either negative or positive domino effects occurring.
So stick with me, this isn't going to be your usual daily doomscroll.
The negative tipping points are often the reason why some prefer to focus on their individual task at hand, and not look at the global picture. It can be overwhelming and provide a real sense of “But what can I do?”, which then triggers fear and the classic fight/flight response:
Alternatively, when looking at an image like the above without the effects of each tipping point listed, it can lead to questions of “So what?” and “How could my individual contribution or my company’s initiatives ever change anything?”. Which are both valid feelings, but not valid arguments for inaction.
For one thing, no single person, company, country or continent is responsible for the predicament we find ourselves in:
“Prior to the Industrial Revolution and all the subsequent detrimental human activities, the global average amount of carbon dioxide was about 280 parts per million (ppm). Today, that level is close to 420 ppm; and every tonne of CO2 emissions adds to global warming.” - “The Tipping Points of Climate Change: How Will Our World Change?”, Earth.org
That’s a lot of combined actions to increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: some active, some passive, some conscious, many not. Just like the actions needed to reverse it. These increasing amounts were once described to me as being similar to wrapping yourself in more and more blankets in winter: eventually, you’re just going to get too hot.
But What Does It ACTUALLY Mean?
Professor Tim Lenton is from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, which is responsible for the Global Tipping Points reports. Thinking about the cascading climate tipping points in the above image, there are many knock-on effects, as explained by Dr. Lenton on VoxTalks Economics (definitely worth listening to):
Firstly, coral reef die-offs, such as the ones we have already witnessed here in Australia, have a direct impact on marine ecosystems. Which if you want to put a kitchen table flavour on it, will result in more expensive fish for dinner, along with deteriorating waterways and human health, fixed only by increasing annual public health spending. Or reduced tourism and weakened local, state and and national economy.
Both the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are at risk of disintegration, which would lead to significant sea-level rises of up to two metres by 2100. Modelling from CoastalDEM indicates this would directly impact 190 million people currently living below this line (equivalent to Bangladesh’s entire population), and another 300 million will be impacted by annual coastal flooding (equivalent to Indonesia’s entire population). One high-emissions model forecast 630 million being directly impacted by 2100, predominantly in Asia.
It’s almost become de rigueur to speak about the Amazon and the catastrophic loss of biodiversity currently at risk due to the reduced river flow. But what does this mean? Well, this will result in a significant increase in transport difficulties across the region, resulting in estimated economic damages between $1 trillion and $3.5 trillion. And that’s while six million people in the region experience extreme heat stress. If nothing else, negatively impacting worker productivity levels.
But the whopper of all these tipping points is the change in ocean circulation, which sounds like the currents merely switching direction, but ain’t. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is often referred to as the planet’s “central heating system”, as it’s responsible for transferring the heat between each hemisphere as needed. Unfortunately, its collapse is predicted by ~2050.
Poetic timing for the net zero roadmaps.
The reason this is such an issue is the collapse of the AMOC is effectively a winning bingo card for climactic impacts on humans: rising sea levels, 5-15°C drops in European temperatures due to weather volatility, all leading to societal impacts of escalating “violent conflicts, mass displacement and financial instability”.
And we know what humans are like when there’s a toilet paper shortage.
However, I Did Promise An Anti-Doomscroll:
It’s not all doom and gloom. There are also positive tipping points we have already achieved AKA there is a path out of this. And this is why knowing what we’re facing is crucial for teams working on commercial Sustainability business strategies.
Again, Prof. Lenton leads the conversation on ‘A Sustainable Future’: “Planetary Boundaries, Early Warning Systems and Climate Tipping Points”.
What are these positive tipping points and what could the benefits look like? I’m glad you asked.
Numero uno is the mass-scale adoption of renewable energy. The rapid growth of solar farms and wind turbines is already creating a positive tipping point in the energy sector, which I have previously explained here and here.
The transition towards Electric Vehicles is next. The increasing sales and adoption of electric vehicles represent a significant positive tipping point in transportation as they require countries to import less oil, in turn reducing not just the amount of oil required, but also the amount of oil tankers burning through oil in order to transport oil. EVs and renewable energy sources also happen to be deflationary measures vs. inflationary fossil fuels, which are mighty helpful at the moment.
As with all successful technologies, battery improvements are accelerating as electric vehicle adoption increases, meaning battery costs are decreasing, bringing down the price of EVs, which in turn supports a faster renewable energy transition.
Regenerative agriculture is next up, once the way farming was done, then a practice only retained by those on the hippy-er end of the farming community, and now expanding again as more data proves it generates better quality produce while minimising waste, resulting in lower operations costs, health costs and stronger farming communities for a demographic currently at higher risk of suicide.
The use of renewable energy sources in heavy industry is also proving to be be a huge opportunity for companies to provide Green Steel for construction, Green Hydrogen as a fuel source and Green ammonia for fertilisers. A net zero world does not mean an absence of many foundational building blocks of society, and this space is understandably receiving significant Research & Development funding.
These positive tipping points are key to both slowing the increasing impacts of climate change, as well as illustrating where we are seeing successes so we can double down on mitigation efforts as we are preparing adaptation measures. This is the Montreal Protocol/closing the hole in the Ozone combined with sunscreen approach we kicked this series off with.
There is absolutely a chance we will shoot through an increase of 2 degrees. But accepting that without throwing the kitchen sink at it would be similar to saying you’re not going to drive without a seatbelt because there are lots of car accidents anyway.
You wouldn’t.
Instead, have a Doughnut, and buckle up.
Until next week,
Dan